When something happens, it's easy to criticize what happened and analyze the facts.
When something might happen, it's not as easy to do the same. Each person has a unique mixture of life experiences that have brought that person to their own conclusion.
In both cases, that same life experiences/knowledge base for each unique individual will alter the perceived outcome of that analysis, thus both cases are completely fallible in anyone else's eyes. It's why debate exists to form new opinions about all the facts.
The hardest thing to do is to realize that your opinion/understanding is not complete, have someone inform you of that fact, your brain connecting the dots, and then agreeing with it (doesn't always happen obviously), and the a ha moment happens, but then your ego prevents you from admitting you were wrong for whatever reason.
Past, present, future, nobody can know everything. It's what makes our complicated world so interesting. It's the differences that make us what we are.
I'm under an opinion that has not been swayed yet, that M$ will do something bad. what it will be, I don't know. But I've seen enough optimism so far to realize that it's not fake optimism, but instead optimism fueled by understanding. Thus, I've decided to take a wait and see approach on how things go. Pitchforks at the ready.
We need a defcon type name to call this. Are we at withercon 3 or 4 today?