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Townwolf: Game thread

Fraction2 said:
RJS - Was against the D1 lynch, but flipped due to the perceived timetable issue, and then continued on his new track after the timetable issue was cleared up. Initial arguments could have been a stunt to divert suspicion.
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I continued on my new track because of Pyure's presentation of well explained views on the subject, and in particular some juicy juicy maths. Mmmmm. :P

OK. I was going to go through the thread and try and pick out a reason as to why Dylan may have been targeted. His vote for lenscas on D1 was the most significant real contribution he's put on the thread. However:
dylanpiera said:
Question time! @dragon_fang101

Does the drunken seer know he is drunken?
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I suspect this comment on Day 1 may have been the reason for him being targeted. Damnit dylan:

So if he gave this away on D1, why would the wolves wait until D2 to kill dylan? Pyure was clearly a bigger threat in the eyes of the wolves. The stuff he said on D1 doesn't seem to be particularly interesting or exposing, which leaves three possibilities IMO:
  1. Pyure was targeted as a power player. This could have come from anyone, and doesn't help us narrow down.
  2. Pyure said something in private to a player that done spooked them. Unless this was part of a three way conversation, I doubt anyone's going to hold up their hands and admit their wrongdoing.
  3. Pyure was targeted when the D1 Pyure wagon failed to pick up speed. This points to one of the early adopters as a potential wolf.
Pretty weak, I know, but it does tie in with a lot of suspicious reads on Shia LaZam. Vote Shazam

I won't let my dreams be dreams.

Also, now we have GM confirmation that a wizard potion can revive, it might be nice to give the officers a clear target to jump in front of and give us a trusted villager.
 
Shazam seems to be the most suspicious, and if he is a wolf, he's dangerous. He is a very good player when he is a wolf. I'm just gonna do it and vote Shia Lazam
 
Ooh, four votes already. Single file.
Fraction2 said:
016Nojr - If I remember correctly, this guy was unpredictable. But I still don't like "I'm not going to bother looking through the day," that tells me he isn't making educated votes to begin with.
eeffoc - not much to go off of here.
Eruantien - Did the first player analysis, so he looks a little more innocent than most.
Exedra - Little to know information.
fowlief - Didn't say anything D2, awaiting his analysis when he reaches work
Fraction2 - I'm entirely confident this guy isn't a wolf. That's just my gut, though. Well, and my reading ability
HeilMewTwo - Needs to become more proficient in his typing speed, so slow he doesn't get things posted.
lenscas - did double vote D1, but most likely coincident and not worth changing, then our D1 lynching shenanigans happened.
Lethosos - Deliberately placed a third vote on a player with absolutely no evidence. Advocated a free bandwagon against somebody whom we had no evidence against.
LivingAngryCheese - Not very wolfish. Attempted to start a player network with RJS and I, but was shot down due to a lack of trust from RJS and I.
RJS - Was against the D1 lynch, but flipped due to the perceived timetable issue, and then continued on his new track after the timetable issue was cleared up. Initial arguments could have been a stunt to divert suspicion.
Shazam08 - Diverted the D1 bandwagon onto a "Power Player." This could have been a wolfish play to rid us of a power player, and when it failed Pyure was murdered by the wolves anyways.
SomeoneElse37 - Voted for Lethosos with me, so I find that a plus. Hasn't done anything super suspicious.
SoraZodia - Not much to read.
SpwnX - Busy with real life. What a scrub, werewolf is life.
StrikingWolf - very quiet so far.
TheEpic5 - I'm not sure what to think, seems like he's shenaniganing around over there.
VikeStep - The "power player." Encourages analysis, but he does that every game. Something about making us all better and more challenging for him. Incredibly dangerous as a wolf. Sorta let me down in his evaluation of RJS, had quite a bit of material followed by not a lot of meaningful analysis. Potential allies there.

Vote Shazam08.

This is just a hunch, but his "a wolf would have done this" argument reeks of planning and a nice attempt to rid the game of a "power player." Also, didn't respond to my message. Must be a lonely old hermit.
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Bruh. You went through all this analyzation and didn't add in rainbows? Roy G. Biv would like a word. :p

Fraction2 said:
Shazam08 - Diverted the D1 bandwagon onto a "Power Player." This could have been a wolfish play to rid us of a power player, and when it failed Pyure was murdered by the wolves anyways.
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Indeed. Most of the accusations against me have been about "diverting the D1 bandwagon", first for the purpose of saving my fellow wolf sg (which was wrong) and now to kill off Pyure (which is also wrong). If my "wolfish play" had the ultimate end goal of killing Py, it was a pretty half-assed attempt.

Let's bring back wolf-Shaz, since he seems to be getting some love later in your post.

Wolf-Shaz, recognizing Pyure as a threat, fiendishly develops a plan to get rid of him D1. Step 1: A nonsense two-sentence accusation "based on tradition" at the end of a much larger post. After waking up between the hours of two and seven AM, I realize that such strong evidence didn't entirely sway people's mind. Thus begins phase 2: Killing him vía wolf convo. After, you know, publicly connecting myself to him. Brilliant plays.
Fraction2 said:
This is just a hunch, but his "a wolf would have done this" argument reeks of planning and a nice attempt to rid the game of a "power player." Also, didn't respond to my message. Must be a lonely old hermit.
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Yes, I planned the argument out 48 hours in advance, anticipating every accusation that would come against me. You caught me. Take me to the Psychic's ward.

Was this whole hunch just an attempt to get me to talk? Just poke me harder, Frac. Your last post didn't imply a question.

(RJS-related post incoming)
 
But Shazam, you may have done these things with the express intent of saying "would I be dumb enough to do this?"

Because you're just that clever.
 
Oh, this'll be much shorter than I thought. It's the same argument.
RJS said:
OK. I was going to go through the thread and try and pick out a reason as to why Dylan may have been targeted. His vote for lenscas on D1 was the most significant real contribution he's put on the thread. However:

I suspect this comment on Day 1 may have been the reason for him being targeted. Damnit dylan:

So if he gave this away on D1, why would the wolves wait until D2 to kill dylan? Pyure was clearly a bigger threat in the eyes of the wolves. The stuff he said on D1 doesn't seem to be particularly interesting or exposing, which leaves three possibilities IMO:
  1. Pyure was targeted as a power player. This could have come from anyone, and doesn't help us narrow down.
  2. Pyure said something in private to a player that done spooked them. Unless this was part of a three way conversation, I doubt anyone's going to hold up their hands and admit their wrongdoing.
  3. Pyure was targeted when the D1 Pyure wagon failed to pick up speed. This points to one of the early adopters as a potential wolf.
Pretty weak, I know, but it does tie in with a lot of suspicious reads on Shia LaZam. Vote Shazam

I won't let my dreams be dreams.
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Yesterday you said tomorrow.

If I may summarize the charges: "Shazam tried to get Pyure lynched, it failed, he killed him". Correct me if I'm strawmanning.

First of all, possibility 3 isn't a cause. It's restating a theoretical order of events. "The wolves wanted to kill Pyure because their attempt to kill Pyure failed" doesn't address why they wanted to kill him in the first place, which would probably be either cause 1 or cause 2. /technicality

Not much else to say that wasn't covered in my last post. I love that you two finished with "Just a hunch" and "Pretty weak, I know", respectively. :P

Lightning round!
LivingAngryCheese said:
Shazam seems to be the most suspicious, and if he is a wolf, he's dangerous. He is a very good player when he is a wolf. I'm just gonna do it and vote Shia Lazam
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eeffoc said:
Vote Shazam
Because, player analysis...
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Exceptional arguments. Would you mind reconsidering, now that I've gotten a chance to defend myself? Love you too Cheese. <3

Really, guys, this isn't beneficial. I'm not in with the wolves. ._.

Fraction2 said:
But Shazam, you may have done these things with the express intent of saying "would I be dumb enough to do this?"

Because you're just that clever.
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<3

Pre-planned public rambling is more of a Pyure or Vike play, actually. Wolf-Shaz likes to sit in the corner and organize. ._.

Also, this raises a question: Why would I have done "these things" in the first place? I've been explaining my reasoning pretty thoroughly and it's clearly landed me in some hot water. While plausible deniability is good and all, it's much more effective to just shut the fuck up to begin with. :P
 
VikeStep said:
I'm going to start off my analysis by first saying that the first day is not a very good day to go off for determining whether a player is wolfy. A lot of players muck around that day, throw votes onto players and don't pay it too much mind. Where we see wolfy traits in day 1 are in how people respond to accusations, now a good wolf will know to not pay it too much mind and just let any votes against him go.

There is also quite a bit to go off for what we have so far on day 2. Especially people antismiting day 2 since we have surprisingly a lot of information on people.

For colorblind people, this list is sorted in order of how suspicious I find them.

VikeStep - Encouraging people to analyse people in more detail, obviously a good guy
RJS - I like the way he is playing, critically evaluating things, seems to be pretty villagery
Someone Else 37 - Nothing stands out as wolfy to me. Also pointed out the hypocrisy of sgbros's behaviour and is in general very helpful
fowltief - Was quite helpful with the discussions on d1. Hasn't said anything d2 yet.
Eruantien - Actually stepped up and did the player analysis (although some of the comments were more comical and not serious which isn't bad but yeah), but then voted for nojr with no reason.
SoraZodia - Was reasonable about the lynching someone d1 but decided to give sgbros a chance to speak. Could be interpreted as wolfy/villagery
SpwnX - Hasn't done anything I find suspicious yet.
Lethosos - Was excited for a "free bandwagon" as others have pointed out but gave an explanation which is sort of reasonable. Has justified his actions, so not sure what everyone else is going on about.
StrikingWolf - Nothing suspicious on d1. Hasn't said anything d2 yet
Exedra - Was AFK day 1 and then voted for Sora with no reason d2. Not really something that is particularly villagery or wolfy
LivingAngryCheese - The person I still have the biggest question mark about. Waited a long time to post anything but was actively liking posts, I usually see wolves do this when they are keeping one vote extra so that near. However did bring some good arguments to the table about the whole d1 lynching thing. Also RJS brang up info about the conversations that he has been having and I am not entirely sure that the reasoning RJS brought up were really wolfy, it just seems like someone who wants to start a network with someone who looks quite villagery (as I find RJS very villagery as well).
dylanpiera - Commented on the suspicious wagon which suddenly happened on Pyure. Then decided to antismite d2 despite the fact that lots of people are putting forth good arguments he hasn't commented on.
HeilMewTwo - Like every game, believes that since everything that he says can be used against him, does not say anything. And tbh this is just bad for the villagers
lenscas - Was very quick to join the wagon against Pyure. Could also just be that Shazam08 is very good at convincing people. Also did initially vote for sg
Fraction2 - Attempted to convince to instead vote for nobody. By no means is this bad, but if it so happens that sgbros was a wolf, then this may be an attempt to steer people away from that. He also found it suspicious that two people voted for the same person really close to each other, but people do that every game in the first few posts on day 1 and no-one bats an eye
Theepic5 - Normal playing around on day 1, then voted himself? Then shortly afterwards voted for nojr just as "revenge" but with no reasoning.
016nojr - Hasn't done anything to help the village yet and antismited someone who already had two votes on d2. Could be a mistake but I can't help but find it suspicious.
Shazam08 - Assisted in steering the wagon away from sgbros1, whom I find very suspicious. And from experience, when a wagon suddenly stops it is maybe the work of wolves.
Sgbros1 - Instead of overreacting to the wagon attempt, stood the wagon in its face and encouraged people to join the wagon. Why a villager would do this I have no clue. Then justified the wagon on Pyure as tradition instead of agreeing that it actually was suspicious that this wagon happened so quickly. Also was possibly about to be lynched and then he managed to get out of it.

Btw, calling it now: Fraction2, Shazam08, lenscas and sgbros1 are wolves. I may also be very wrong.

vote sgbros
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Going to respond to this with my own thoughts

VikeStep
Why of course fine sir
RJS - I like the way he is playing, critically evaluating things, seems to be pretty villagery
Then again, RJS is a power player. The wolves critically evaluate things to, as shown constantly by your and Pyure's behavior
Someone Else 37 - Nothing stands out as wolfy to me. Also pointed out the hypocrisy of sgbros's behaviour and is in general very helpful
This is true, Someone Else is most likely villager
fowltief - Was quite helpful with the discussions on d1. Hasn't said anything d2 yet.
Then again, he is a new player, I can't determine his strategies/patterns, so no leads IMO, yellow.
Eruantien - Actually stepped up and did the player analysis (although some of the comments were more comical and not serious which isn't bad but yeah), but then voted for nojr with no reason.
No reason votes would put him lower on the list for me, mainly since he had participated earlier
SoraZodia - Was reasonable about the lynching someone d1 but decided to give sgbros a chance to speak. Could be interpreted as wolfy/villagery
Definitely not wolfy in my eyes, I would put him higher on the list, giving a player a chance to rebuttal your argument it very villagery IMO
SpwnX - Hasn't done anything I find suspicious yet.
Same conclusion
Lethosos - Was excited for a "free bandwagon" as others have pointed out but gave an explanation which is sort of reasonable. Has justified his actions, so not sure what everyone else is going on about.
I could see this either as fairly villagery or obvious wolf, no middle ground on Leth IMO
StrikingWolf - Nothing suspicious on d1. Hasn't said anything d2 yet
I swear I'm a good guy :3
Exedra - Was AFK day 1 and then voted for Sora with no reason d2. Not really something that is particularly villagery or wolfy
No ideas here
LivingAngryCheese - The person I still have the biggest question mark about. Waited a long time to post anything but was actively liking posts, I usually see wolves do this when they are keeping one vote extra so that near. However did bring some good arguments to the table about the whole d1 lynching thing. Also RJS brang up info about the conversations that he has been having and I am not entirely sure that the reasoning RJS brought up were really wolfy, it just seems like someone who wants to start a network with someone who looks quite villagery (as I find RJS very villagery as well).
My opinion here is that LAC is a villager as liking posts is much easier than posting detailed arguments. Due to his post recently I would mark LAC as a villager with small possibility of wolf
dylanpiera - Commented on the suspicious wagon which suddenly happened on Pyure. Then decided to antismite d2 despite the fact that lots of people are putting forth good arguments he hasn't commented on.
Not particularly wolfy to me, but definitely not villagery. I agree on orange
HeilMewTwo - Like every game, believes that since everything that he says can be used against him, does not say anything. And tbh this is just bad for the villagers
Even if HMT is villager Vike is correct here, no communication means the villagers have an automatic loss.
lenscas - Was very quick to join the wagon against Pyure. Could also just be that Shazam08 is very good at convincing people. Also did initially vote for sg
I would wager that it is more that Shazam is good at convincing people
Fraction2 - Attempted to convince to instead vote for nobody. By no means is this bad, but if it so happens that sgbros was a wolf, then this may be an attempt to steer people away from that. He also found it suspicious that two people voted for the same person really close to each other, but people do that every game in the first few posts on day 1 and no-one bats an eye
I would also rank Fraction as orange, but closer to the top of the orange b/c the second half of this argument is very circumstantial
Theepic5 - Normal playing around on day 1, then voted himself? Then shortly afterwards voted for nojr just as "revenge" but with no reasoning.
I don't have any ideas as to his part in this. Oh, we're close to controversy
016nojr - Hasn't done anything to help the village yet and antismited someone who already had two votes on d2. Could be a mistake but I can't help but find it suspicious.
016Nojr's play is pretty chaotic anyway, I would rank him just barely orange, but not by much
Shazam08 - Assisted in steering the wagon away from sgbros1, whom I find very suspicious. And from experience, when a wagon suddenly stops it is maybe the work of wolves.
Based on Shazam's regular wolf play style and also the above argument, I do not find shazam extremely suspicious. Not sure where I would place him though, especially because of the sudden wagon stop

Conclusion: vote dead people
 
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I only just woke up, having read what Shazam08 has said, I also want to add that your (RJS and Fraction2's) entire premise that the Pyure wagon was because the wolves were behind it.

Now, let us just say theoretically that Shaz is a wolf. There is currently a wagon going on someone who just claimed they are a very important role. Why would you switch the wagon off them to someone who has made no such claim. Why did they not just hop on the sgbros wagon and then Kill Pyure that night. That just doesn't seem like something a wolf would do.
 
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