Townwolf: Game thread
- Thread starter dragon_fang101
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So, I figured this out.
assuming we're using the standard 4:1 ratio, and there are 21 people at the beginning of the game then there should be 5.25 wolves. that means that someone is a quarter wolf.
I've deducted that @Werewolf Joint GM is a quarter wolf on his mother's side.
Assuming his mother has 2 parents (as most people do) we can remove 1/2 from the fourmula.
100/4.75 = 21.somethingsomething
there were 21 people at the beginning of the game.
Therefore 18!
assuming we're using the standard 4:1 ratio, and there are 21 people at the beginning of the game then there should be 5.25 wolves. that means that someone is a quarter wolf.
I've deducted that @Werewolf Joint GM is a quarter wolf on his mother's side.
Assuming his mother has 2 parents (as most people do) we can remove 1/2 from the fourmula.
100/4.75 = 21.somethingsomething
there were 21 people at the beginning of the game.
Therefore 18!
I'm going to start off my analysis by first saying that the first day is not a very good day to go off for determining whether a player is wolfy. A lot of players muck around that day, throw votes onto players and don't pay it too much mind. Where we see wolfy traits in day 1 are in how people respond to accusations, now a good wolf will know to not pay it too much mind and just let any votes against him go.
There is also quite a bit to go off for what we have so far on day 2. Especially people antismiting day 2 since we have surprisingly a lot of information on people.
For colorblind people, this list is sorted in order of how suspicious I find them.
VikeStep - Encouraging people to analyse people in more detail, obviously a good guy
RJS - I like the way he is playing, critically evaluating things, seems to be pretty villagery
Someone Else 37 - Nothing stands out as wolfy to me. Also pointed out the hypocrisy of sgbros's behaviour and is in general very helpful
fowltief - Was quite helpful with the discussions on d1. Hasn't said anything d2 yet.
Eruantien - Actually stepped up and did the player analysis (although some of the comments were more comical and not serious which isn't bad but yeah), but then voted for nojr with no reason.
SoraZodia - Was reasonable about the lynching someone d1 but decided to give sgbros a chance to speak. Could be interpreted as wolfy/villagery
SpwnX - Hasn't done anything I find suspicious yet.
Lethosos - Was excited for a "free bandwagon" as others have pointed out but gave an explanation which is sort of reasonable. Has justified his actions, so not sure what everyone else is going on about.
StrikingWolf - Nothing suspicious on d1. Hasn't said anything d2 yet
Exedra - Was AFK day 1 and then voted for Sora with no reason d2. Not really something that is particularly villagery or wolfy
LivingAngryCheese - The person I still have the biggest question mark about. Waited a long time to post anything but was actively liking posts, I usually see wolves do this when they are keeping one vote extra so that near. However did bring some good arguments to the table about the whole d1 lynching thing. Also RJS brang up info about the conversations that he has been having and I am not entirely sure that the reasoning RJS brought up were really wolfy, it just seems like someone who wants to start a network with someone who looks quite villagery (as I find RJS very villagery as well).
dylanpiera - Commented on the suspicious wagon which suddenly happened on Pyure. Then decided to antismite d2 despite the fact that lots of people are putting forth good arguments he hasn't commented on.
HeilMewTwo - Like every game, believes that since everything that he says can be used against him, does not say anything. And tbh this is just bad for the villagers
lenscas - Was very quick to join the wagon against Pyure. Could also just be that Shazam08 is very good at convincing people. Also did initially vote for sg
Fraction2 - Attempted to convince to instead vote for nobody. By no means is this bad, but if it so happens that sgbros was a wolf, then this may be an attempt to steer people away from that. He also found it suspicious that two people voted for the same person really close to each other, but people do that every game in the first few posts on day 1 and no-one bats an eye
Theepic5 - Normal playing around on day 1, then voted himself? Then shortly afterwards voted for nojr just as "revenge" but with no reasoning.
016nojr - Hasn't done anything to help the village yet and antismited someone who already had two votes on d2. Could be a mistake but I can't help but find it suspicious.
Shazam08 - Assisted in steering the wagon away from sgbros1, whom I find very suspicious. And from experience, when a wagon suddenly stops it is maybe the work of wolves.
Sgbros1 - Instead of overreacting to the wagon attempt, stood the wagon in its face and encouraged people to join the wagon. Why a villager would do this I have no clue. Then justified the wagon on Pyure as tradition instead of agreeing that it actually was suspicious that this wagon happened so quickly. Also was possibly about to be lynched and then he managed to get out of it.
Btw, calling it now: Fraction2, Shazam08, lenscas and sgbros1 are wolves. I may also be very wrong.
vote sgbros
There is also quite a bit to go off for what we have so far on day 2. Especially people antismiting day 2 since we have surprisingly a lot of information on people.
For colorblind people, this list is sorted in order of how suspicious I find them.
VikeStep - Encouraging people to analyse people in more detail, obviously a good guy
RJS - I like the way he is playing, critically evaluating things, seems to be pretty villagery
Someone Else 37 - Nothing stands out as wolfy to me. Also pointed out the hypocrisy of sgbros's behaviour and is in general very helpful
fowltief - Was quite helpful with the discussions on d1. Hasn't said anything d2 yet.
Eruantien - Actually stepped up and did the player analysis (although some of the comments were more comical and not serious which isn't bad but yeah), but then voted for nojr with no reason.
SoraZodia - Was reasonable about the lynching someone d1 but decided to give sgbros a chance to speak. Could be interpreted as wolfy/villagery
SpwnX - Hasn't done anything I find suspicious yet.
Lethosos - Was excited for a "free bandwagon" as others have pointed out but gave an explanation which is sort of reasonable. Has justified his actions, so not sure what everyone else is going on about.
StrikingWolf - Nothing suspicious on d1. Hasn't said anything d2 yet
Exedra - Was AFK day 1 and then voted for Sora with no reason d2. Not really something that is particularly villagery or wolfy
LivingAngryCheese - The person I still have the biggest question mark about. Waited a long time to post anything but was actively liking posts, I usually see wolves do this when they are keeping one vote extra so that near. However did bring some good arguments to the table about the whole d1 lynching thing. Also RJS brang up info about the conversations that he has been having and I am not entirely sure that the reasoning RJS brought up were really wolfy, it just seems like someone who wants to start a network with someone who looks quite villagery (as I find RJS very villagery as well).
dylanpiera - Commented on the suspicious wagon which suddenly happened on Pyure. Then decided to antismite d2 despite the fact that lots of people are putting forth good arguments he hasn't commented on.
HeilMewTwo - Like every game, believes that since everything that he says can be used against him, does not say anything. And tbh this is just bad for the villagers
lenscas - Was very quick to join the wagon against Pyure. Could also just be that Shazam08 is very good at convincing people. Also did initially vote for sg
Fraction2 - Attempted to convince to instead vote for nobody. By no means is this bad, but if it so happens that sgbros was a wolf, then this may be an attempt to steer people away from that. He also found it suspicious that two people voted for the same person really close to each other, but people do that every game in the first few posts on day 1 and no-one bats an eye
Theepic5 - Normal playing around on day 1, then voted himself? Then shortly afterwards voted for nojr just as "revenge" but with no reasoning.
016nojr - Hasn't done anything to help the village yet and antismited someone who already had two votes on d2. Could be a mistake but I can't help but find it suspicious.
Shazam08 - Assisted in steering the wagon away from sgbros1, whom I find very suspicious. And from experience, when a wagon suddenly stops it is maybe the work of wolves.
Sgbros1 - Instead of overreacting to the wagon attempt, stood the wagon in its face and encouraged people to join the wagon. Why a villager would do this I have no clue. Then justified the wagon on Pyure as tradition instead of agreeing that it actually was suspicious that this wagon happened so quickly. Also was possibly about to be lynched and then he managed to get out of it.
Btw, calling it now: Fraction2, Shazam08, lenscas and sgbros1 are wolves. I may also be very wrong.
vote sgbros
Actually the reason that I have been quiet for the past few games is that I am in my final assignment period. So expect a lot more activity from me tomorrow.
For no reason, ye. I should've said antismite... basically he was the last person to have posted above me. Consider it an antismite, if that appeals to you. However you also consider nojr suspicious, so not sure why you're hyping that part about me anyway. *shrug*
How'd I do with my less-than-stellar analysis?
Even though I find nojr suspicious, you didn't say why you found him suspicious. For example if I all of a sudden voted for LivingAngryCheese now, RJS would have all the right to find me suspicious despite me voting for the same person he did.For no reason, ye. I should've said antismite... basically he was the last person to have posted above me. Consider it an antismite, if that appeals to you. However you also consider nojr suspicious, so not sure why you're hyping that part about me anyway. *shrug*
How'd I do with my less-than-stellar analysis?
Your analysis was ok, but the point is that it should lead on discussion and raise up small points which I think it missed out on.
Based on what I seen from past games, overreacting to a bandwagon tends to cause more people to hop on since it can be seen as a wolf's desperate attempt to avoid getting lynched. Encouraging the wagon would be a better choice since it would confuse everyone and make them reconsider their votes. But I find it weird that the wolves would target Pyure instead Sgbro after he proclaimed that he was a villager with a possible power.
Time for a somewhat accurate and totally unofficial vote recap!
In an astounding five-way tie for first, we have:
Lethosos (2): Fraction2, SE37
016Nojr (2): Eruantien, TheEpic5
TheEpic5 (2): eeffoc, 016Nojr
sgbros (2): HeilMewTwo, VikeStep
LivingAngryCheese (2): dylanpiera, RJS
And the equally numerous runners up:
SoraZodia (1): Exedra
Shazam08 (1): lenscas
lenscas (1): LivingAngryCheese
Eruantien (1): sgbros
RJS (1): SpwnX
In an astounding five-way tie for first, we have:
Lethosos (2): Fraction2, SE37
016Nojr (2): Eruantien, TheEpic5
TheEpic5 (2): eeffoc, 016Nojr
sgbros (2): HeilMewTwo, VikeStep
LivingAngryCheese (2): dylanpiera, RJS
And the equally numerous runners up:
SoraZodia (1): Exedra
Shazam08 (1): lenscas
lenscas (1): LivingAngryCheese
Eruantien (1): sgbros
RJS (1): SpwnX
While I did find I suspicious, I proceeded to qualify my statement immediately afterwards.
I, however, did find Lethosos to be suspicious for voting for somebody who already had two votes, and did nothing to justify that third vote.
As I said at the start of my analysis, I take the votes on the first day with a grain of salt unless it is specifically in reaction to another vote or trying to derail a wagon. So yeah, that is my justification for why I did not find Leth's vote sus.
