Werewolf: The Purification - Game Thread

SoraZodia

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Mar 11, 2014
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Vote Vikestep
Because you stole my beef jerky... Nobody steals my beef jerky :mad:
woof
 
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VikeStep

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Jul 29, 2019
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vote coolsquid because switching gives you a better chance (If anyone wants me to elaborate I can but it involves maths)
 

VikeStep

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Jul 29, 2019
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Ah screw it, I wrote out my proof that switching is better anyways because why not:
The monty hall problem is a situation where you are on a game show and there are three doors. behind two of them are goats and behind the other is a car. From probability you would think there is a 1/3 chance of getting the car. So you choose one, and instead of opening that one he opens a door you didnt select which contains a goat (if the door you selected was a goat he'll open the door with the other goat). Now he gives you the choice to either switch to the other unopened door or stay. Now you would be thinking "Why VikeStep, surely it is now a 50% chance. Why would it make any difference?" Well sadly that is not the case. If you switch there is a 2/3 chance of winning the car whereas staying is 1/3 chance. There is a whole lot of mathematical proofs but the main reasoning is because when you initially chose your first door there was a 1/3 chance, now when choosing there is still a 1/3 chance and the other door has the combined probabilities of 1/3 and 1/3 because you are guaranteed to get the car if it is out of those two.

Anyways so know you are thinking "But VikeStep, how does this relate at all to this game?" Well lets take this monty hall problem and change one aspect. instead of showing a correct door after selecting a door we are essentially adding a door. Now this door is just as likely to be a wolf as any other, however statistics says that... hold on i've got a picture explaining it all here
 

CoolSquid

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Ah screw it, I wrote out my proof that switching is better anyways because why not:
The monty hall problem is a situation where you are on a game show and there are three doors. behind two of them are goats and behind the other is a car. From probability you would think there is a 1/3 chance of getting the car. So you choose one, and instead of opening that one he opens a door you didnt select which contains a goat (if the door you selected was a goat he'll open the door with the other goat). Now he gives you the choice to either switch to the other unopened door or stay. Now you would be thinking "Why VikeStep, surely it is now a 50% chance. Why would it make any difference?" Well sadly that is not the case. If you switch there is a 2/3 chance of winning the car whereas staying is 1/3 chance. There is a whole lot of mathematical proofs but the main reasoning is because when you initially chose your first door there was a 1/3 chance, now when choosing there is still a 1/3 chance and the other door has the combined probabilities of 1/3 and 1/3 because you are guaranteed to get the car if it is out of those two.

Anyways so know you are thinking "But VikeStep, how does this relate at all to this game?" Well lets take this monty hall problem and change one aspect. instead of showing a correct door after selecting a door we are essentially adding a door. Now this door is just as likely to be a wolf as any other, however statistics says that... hold on i've got a picture explaining it all here
It's too late for me to understand anything containing percentages...
 

SoraZodia

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Switch vote to FireFistRay to avoid lynching Vike.
 

Pyure

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Aug 14, 2013
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Waterloo, Ontario
Ah screw it, I wrote out my proof that switching is better anyways because why not:
The monty hall problem is a situation where you are on a game show and there are three doors. behind two of them are goats and behind the other is a car. From probability you would think there is a 1/3 chance of getting the car. So you choose one, and instead of opening that one he opens a door you didnt select which contains a goat (if the door you selected was a goat he'll open the door with the other goat). Now he gives you the choice to either switch to the other unopened door or stay. Now you would be thinking "Why VikeStep, surely it is now a 50% chance. Why would it make any difference?" Well sadly that is not the case. If you switch there is a 2/3 chance of winning the car whereas staying is 1/3 chance. There is a whole lot of mathematical proofs but the main reasoning is because when you initially chose your first door there was a 1/3 chance, now when choosing there is still a 1/3 chance and the other door has the combined probabilities of 1/3 and 1/3 because you are guaranteed to get the car if it is out of those two.

Anyways so know you are thinking "But VikeStep, how does this relate at all to this game?" Well lets take this monty hall problem and change one aspect. instead of showing a correct door after selecting a door we are essentially adding a door. Now this door is just as likely to be a wolf as any other, however statistics says that... hold on i've got a picture explaining it all here
The first time I saw the MP conundrum, my argument was that you are not switching to a 2/3 guess. You're still choosing between three doors, so your chance is still 33%. I forget what the counter argument was.
 

VikeStep

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Jul 29, 2019
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The first time I saw the MP conundrum, my argument was that you are not switching to a 2/3 guess. You're still choosing between three doors, so your chance is still 33%. I forget what the counter argument was.
It's been proven. Write a script or small program and you'll see that the distribution is 2:1
 

SpwnX

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Jul 29, 2019
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vote meowtwo, if he has a vote already bug me.
My statistics teacher told me about the 50% chance, its something I can't fully understand yet, I just accepted it.
 

SpwnX

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Jul 29, 2019
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You asked for love, theres mine, I'll gladly give it away if you're already loved by someone else as I don't like competition on that regard. I would frustrate myself.
 

HeilMewTwo

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Jul 29, 2019
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I already have a vote, I was referring to when Shazam tried to kick the game off by killing me.
 

RJS

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Jul 29, 2019
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vote meowtwo, if he has a vote already bug me.
My statistics teacher told me about the 50% chance, its something I can't fully understand yet, I just accepted it.
Bug Bug Bug Bug Bug Bug Bug Bug Bug :p