@Gideonseymour, @LivingAngryCheese! You've got your votes on Nobody. I can understand if it was an honest mistake, but if they don't change by the end of the day you've painted bullseyes on your necks.
Werewolf: The Purification - Game Thread
- Thread starter Pyure
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Ah screw it, I wrote out my proof that switching is better anyways because why not:
The monty hall problem is a situation where you are on a game show and there are three doors. behind two of them are goats and behind the other is a car. From probability you would think there is a 1/3 chance of getting the car. So you choose one, and instead of opening that one he opens a door you didnt select which contains a goat (if the door you selected was a goat he'll open the door with the other goat). Now he gives you the choice to either switch to the other unopened door or stay. Now you would be thinking "Why VikeStep, surely it is now a 50% chance. Why would it make any difference?" Well sadly that is not the case. If you switch there is a 2/3 chance of winning the car whereas staying is 1/3 chance. There is a whole lot of mathematical proofs but the main reasoning is because when you initially chose your first door there was a 1/3 chance, now when choosing there is still a 1/3 chance and the other door has the combined probabilities of 1/3 and 1/3 because you are guaranteed to get the car if it is out of those two.
Anyways so know you are thinking "But VikeStep, how does this relate at all to this game?" Well lets take this monty hall problem and change one aspect. instead of showing a correct door after selecting a door we are essentially adding a door. Now this door is just as likely to be a wolf as any other, however statistics says that... hold on i've got a picture explaining it all here
Anyways so know you are thinking "But VikeStep, how does this relate at all to this game?" Well lets take this monty hall problem and change one aspect. instead of showing a correct door after selecting a door we are essentially adding a door. Now this door is just as likely to be a wolf as any other, however statistics says that... hold on i've got a picture explaining it all here
The first time I saw the MP conundrum, my argument was that you are not switching to a 2/3 guess. You're still choosing between three doors, so your chance is still 33%. I forget what the counter argument was.
It's been proven. Write a script or small program and you'll see that the distribution is 2:1