Townwolf: Game thread
- Thread starter dragon_fang101
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Everyone pay attention. Here's a quick Werewolf 101.
A lot of people ask "Why would you vote for someone on D1 when we have no info?"
The reason is that as villagers we ONLY have the information that we GAIN. And it strongly benefits wolves when we gain no info. (Honestly, given the choice, I think some people would antismite/vote nobody every single day and just let the winners be fully randomized). Voting for actual players encourages players with an agenda to actually react to it.
In this instance, you can play a few ways. I have nothing on sgbros at this time, but the fact that RJS tries to defend him gives us TWO tiny tidbits of actual, real, useful information here:
1) RJS is definitely trying to make other people look suspicious, even though there's nothing at all suspicious about that player (note that I don't consider sgbros at all suspicious with my vote)
2) RJS may be trying to protect sgbros specifically. And only wolves know other wolves.
Its not a lot, but that's why its better than voting nobody.
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And here is why I personally feel that voting for someone on D1 is a bad idea. We have various roles in this game. If sgbros is a wolf, that's great. If he's a drunken seer...eh, maybe worth it. If he's a seer, we lose an opportunity to build up a trusted network of proven townspeople which is one of the most powerful things in Werewolf games. As a town, taking a stab at a random player for a D1 lynch is a complete gamble. It could be really good. It could also shaft us massively.On D1, the probability of shafting ourselves outweighs the probability of catching a wolf. For wolves however, taking a stab at a random player on D1 carries absolutely zero risk, unless that player is actually a wolf.
Now, unless the approach has changed massively since I was last playing, it's very rare to have a huge doggypile on somebody on D1. This leads me to suspect that the wolves have decided to hop onto the wagon, plus snowballling from town members climbing on top as well. If the wolves have hopped on, we aren't lynching a wolf. Therefore, we're about to do something that will more likely harm the town than help.
Based on those motives, the reason for my vote was to elicit some sort of explanation as to why people seem so overly keen to lynch someone who is most likely innocent. Pyure is right when he says that voting for players means people react to it, but I suspect the wolf team's reaction was "FREE KILL!".
Or the wolves have decided to protect someone who's getting dogpiled.
The seers (and other power roles) are at risk every single night. There's no sense waiting around hoping they'll stay alive; Wolves need to prey on people, Villagers need to gain info. That's everything there is to this game.
We've been through this discussion before. Sure, we have about a 19%* chance of lynching a wolf if we guess randomly.
Some fun facts : HeilMewTwo and lenscas both voted for the same person a minute apart. I may have missed something while gone (like people always voting for the same person D1), but that seems suspicious to me (good chance this is a coincidence, though). Lethosos then added a third vote for somebody (SUSPICIOUS MUCH?). None of these three players gave any semblance of a reason. Lethosos voted for somebody whom already had two votes on him and gave no reasoning or justification for it.
Then Pyure (whom I remember fondly as a master manipulator) dives in, advocating a strategy that we have repeatedly decided was not helpful to the village, and decides that (mathematically speaking) most likely murderizing a villager will help the village. RJS steps up and points out that this strategy helps the wolves far more than the village, a conclusion I believe we've reached in previous games. The fact that someone so experienced is advocated a strategy we have time and time again decided doesn't help us is... inherently suspicious.
Vote Nobody. Let us collect information like a villager. Allow the seer(s) to scan somebody, and begin building a network. Don't let the wolves get a free kill tonight, because there's and 81% chance that sgbros is a villager.
*I'm assuming a 1:4 villager to wolf ratio
Some fun facts : HeilMewTwo and lenscas both voted for the same person a minute apart. I may have missed something while gone (like people always voting for the same person D1), but that seems suspicious to me (good chance this is a coincidence, though). Lethosos then added a third vote for somebody (SUSPICIOUS MUCH?). None of these three players gave any semblance of a reason. Lethosos voted for somebody whom already had two votes on him and gave no reasoning or justification for it.
Then Pyure (whom I remember fondly as a master manipulator) dives in, advocating a strategy that we have repeatedly decided was not helpful to the village, and decides that (mathematically speaking) most likely murderizing a villager will help the village. RJS steps up and points out that this strategy helps the wolves far more than the village, a conclusion I believe we've reached in previous games. The fact that someone so experienced is advocated a strategy we have time and time again decided doesn't help us is... inherently suspicious.
Vote Nobody. Let us collect information like a villager. Allow the seer(s) to scan somebody, and begin building a network. Don't let the wolves get a free kill tonight, because there's and 81% chance that sgbros is a villager.
*I'm assuming a 1:4 villager to wolf ratio
Fraction2: Mathematically, the village is going to lynch a villager every day. Friendly reminder.
I'm not super pushing this. It sucks. I'm just saying sitting around doesn't help at all either.
I'm not super pushing this. It sucks. I'm just saying sitting around doesn't help at all either.
Which is why it is in our best interest to lynch nobody on the first day, and then use the hinty comments to lynch wolves from here on out.
If we're playing the game of "who can generate the most suspicion", you sir, are a master
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i'd be fine with this if the conditions were normal. but it's not..if the wolves win in 5 days, to me you really don't have time to build a proper network. you would need to start working from day one..i don't know any of you well so it's near impossible for me to read but you guys have been doing this for a while. i really think you should consider your day one move wisely.
Generally speaking there ARE no hinty comments unless someone's life is on the line. Everybody just votes nobody and we wait to see who got killed for the low, low price of zero information.
I get that nuking a seer totally sucks to start a game, but at the end of the day, all these powers are just gimmicks: we should be able to beat the wolves in a 4:1 ratio with nothing but vanilla villagers and some deductive capabilities.
Hmm. I forgot the wolves only had to survive 5 nights. That's pretty brutal on the village. I'd hope that the number of wolves would be lowered as a result.
This does swing me towards the lynch D1 strategy - we're playing on much tighter time, and unless there's a huge number of wolves they're mathematically unlikely to ever be able to outnumber us within 5 days (would require a perfect run by a team of 6 to be possible). On the other hand, if the numbers are lower, then we stand even more chance of nuking a villager.
This does swing me towards the lynch D1 strategy - we're playing on much tighter time, and unless there's a huge number of wolves they're mathematically unlikely to ever be able to outnumber us within 5 days (would require a perfect run by a team of 6 to be possible). On the other hand, if the numbers are lower, then we stand even more chance of nuking a villager.
Bandwagon on D1 is also the easiest way to create a "trusted villager" network. If you're lucky, you get a wolf. Otherwise, the Wizard can rez him and start networking.
Besides, I'm lazy on D1 and D2. Not enough info to start badgering people for claims yet.
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http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=4024952&sid=cec47f9bc870a7f0df1bbd139871ca94#p4024952
fwiw, I'm thinking it would be best to consider prioritizing a D1 lynch on people who don't contribute on the thread much.
fwiw, I'm thinking it would be best to consider prioritizing a D1 lynch on people who don't contribute on the thread much.
*re-reads role sheet*
Hrm. Wizard is a bit ambiguous with "green potion saves," as I thought it meant rezzing someone from the dead. But I'll take your word for it til we get a clarification on that.
I'll change my vote to antismite fowltief despite trying not to antismite everything in sight. *grumps*
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