Seconded Beta!

Pyure

Not Totally Useless
Aug 14, 2013
8,334
7,191
383
Waterloo, Ontario
I will not change my vote, but I will hold off on promoting my Pyurewolf suspicions any further until tomorrow. As it stands now, you will live to play another day.
You can't have it both ways. If you say "I don't really care if you think that I'm a wolf or not." you're saying I'm not a wolf. If you thought I was a wolf, you'd say "I don't really care if you're claiming I'm a wolf, because I believe you're a wolf trying to set me up."

So what I'm doing is aggressively pressuring you to get off the fence. Right now it looks like you're hedging: you don't want to admit that I look town, and you want me to get lynched. That makes you a wolf.

And: I don't care if you care if I think you're a wolf :)
 

Robijnvogel

Well-Known Member
May 8, 2013
533
421
89
You can't have it both ways. If you say "I don't really care if you think that I'm a wolf or not." you're saying I'm not a wolf. If you thought I was a wolf, you'd say "I don't really care if you're claiming I'm a wolf, because I believe you're a wolf trying to set me up."

So what I'm doing is aggressively pressuring you to get off the fence. Right now it looks like you're hedging: you don't want to admit that I look town, and you want me to get lynched. That makes you a wolf.

And: I don't care if you care if I think you're a wolf :)

Something that is not a problem in Dutch is that we use different words for you (singular) and you (plural).
In the comment that you are referring to (but not quoting), the meaning of "you" was plural.

Actually, the reasoning I am using to preserve myself IS in contradiction with the reasoning I am using to vote you.
I know 100% that I am town and you're statistically only 69% town? Is that, in combination with my suspicions, enough to vote for you?

End of day is in 1,5 hours, right?
 

goreae

Ultimate Murderous Fiend
Nov 27, 2012
1,784
2,649
273
Raxacoricofallapatorius
Something that is not a problem in Dutch is that we use different words for you (singular) and you (plural).
In the comment that you are referring to (but not quoting), the meaning of "you" was plural.

Actually, the reasoning I am using to preserve myself IS in contradiction with the reasoning I am using to vote you.
I know 100% that I am town and you're statistically only 69% town? Is that, in combination with my suspicions, enough to vote for you?

End of day is in 1,5 hours, right?
from your post, 2.5 hours. From this post, 2 hours ten minutes. There's a timezone claclulator link in the OP that will tell you the end time in your time zone. It's hella convenient.

EDIT: also, here's a link to my discord: https://discord.gg/0kvhqyfryyk9VUkk

Most if not all the regular werewolfers here are also there. :)
 

Pyure

Not Totally Useless
Aug 14, 2013
8,334
7,191
383
Waterloo, Ontario
Something that is not a problem in Dutch is that we use different words for you (singular) and you (plural).
In the comment that you are referring to (but not quoting), the meaning of "you" was plural.

Actually, the reasoning I am using to preserve myself IS in contradiction with the reasoning I am using to vote you.
To be honest, I took that into consideration. But you were replying directly to me, so I figured "you" referred to me.

So, impasse: I think you have a reasonable chance of being a wolf for half-decent reasons I've provided. I think Fred has a slightly higher chance, so I'm voting him.

You claim that you think I'm a wolf yet you've still not really provided any reasons for that. As far as I can tell I haven't done anything scummy.
 

RJS

New Member
Jul 29, 2019
487
-2
0
Oh boy, there's a bunch of stuff to read again
I'm not sure who I can believe and which conclusion I should draw. I'll antismite erindalc.
Just gonna flag this up. ljfa seems to be pretending to have read the thread, before dropping an 'antismite' that is actually a kill vote.

Vote ljfa
 
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RealKC

Popular Member
Dec 6, 2015
1,004
534
129
King of the Hill
Something that is not a problem in Dutch is that we use different words for you (singular) and you (plural).
In the comment that you are referring to (but not quoting), the meaning of "you" was plural.

Actually, the reasoning I am using to preserve myself IS in contradiction with the reasoning I am using to vote you.
I know 100% that I am town and you're statistically only 69% town? Is that, in combination with my suspicions, enough to vote for you?

End of day is in 1,5 hours, right?
You could use ye or y'all for plural.

Robin has been accusing Pyure for being a wolf without too many reasons and Pyure has been playing towny, but we the last games where he was wolf he played very towny, so... yeah...
vote robin

why do I feel that someone will use this reason to vote me?
 
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Robijnvogel

Well-Known Member
May 8, 2013
533
421
89
from your post, 2.5 hours. From this post, 2 hours ten minutes. There's a timezone claclulator link in the OP that will tell you the end time in your time zone. It's hella convenient.
I forgot to take daylight saving time into account.

Vote frederikam (mostly because I want to make sure Pyure and I can continue our discussion tomorrow)

Also Pyure, you don't have to do anything scummy to be suspected of being a werewolf.
 

Shazam08

New Member
Jul 29, 2019
364
0
0
What's our stance on bandwagons this game? They're necessary if we want to limit lynches to one per day.

On that note (and due to time constraints), vote frederikam.
 

ljfa

New Member
Jul 29, 2019
2,761
-46
0
Well, seems like now things are a little bit clearer.
Shazam and Robijnvogel kinda went on the fredrik bandwagon in the last minute. For now I'll vote Shazam.
 

Robijnvogel

Well-Known Member
May 8, 2013
533
421
89
  • unless I'm mistaken, here's the list of all non-voters who lost a grace smite!
  • @the_j485 @Fraction2 @VictiniX888
  • frederikam got lynched! He was a villager!
  • RJS got ganked! He was a villager!

Ok, that's it. I am out of ideas. Someone start a "bandwagon" or give me some good ideas on whom to vote for and I'll join, or I won't.
Pyure, you're out of the loop for me.

8 villagers, 4 wolves. I'm not going to explain why, because the wolves could misuse that information, but lynching a villager today would be disastrous.

I predict the wolves are going to win this match. :(
 

goreae

Ultimate Murderous Fiend
Nov 27, 2012
1,784
2,649
273
Raxacoricofallapatorius
correction! Erindalc got lynched, victini didn't lose grace smite. I even double-checked it and still missed that post.

Erindalc got lynched! He was a villager!
 

Shazam08

New Member
Jul 29, 2019
364
0
0
Well, seems like now things are a little bit clearer.
Shazam and Robijnvogel kinda went on the fredrik bandwagon in the last minute. For now I'll vote Shazam.
Correct, and in a normal werewolf game that'd be a strong wolf tell. Diverting a bandwagon at the last minute is a classic play to save a wolf from lynching. (There's a term for it, too. Chinese Fire Drill?)

Since anyone with more than one vote is lynched, though, extra votes past two don't affect the lynch's outcome; the only people Robijin and I kept alive were the people we'd voted for before Fred. It was my first vote of the day, and Rob switched off of Pyure to vote for Fred (even though his Pyure vote was never seconded?).

I may be wrong, and correct me if I am, but I'm pretty sure neither of our votes affected the day's outcome.
 
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Someone Else 37

Forum Addict
Feb 10, 2013
1,876
1,440
168
If my reasoning is correct, we need to get a wolf lynched tonight. If there's still four wolves alive tomorrow, and they play their cards correctly, it becomes mathematically impossible for the village to win. Which, oddly enough, seems to argue in favor of lynching as many random people as possible in the hopes that one of them is a wolf.

Given that we do lynch a wolf tonight, how many more villagers can we afford to lynch?
0: Tomorrow, we'd have six villagers and three wolves. Definitely winnable, at least if we can figure out who they are.
1: Five villagers and three wolves tomorrow. Winnable.
2: Four villagers and three wolves. Winnable if we lynch two of those wolves tomorrow, and the last one the next day.
3: Three and three. Only winnable if the wolves mess up.

I propose that we lynch exactly three people today. That gives us our best shot at eliminating one wolf (which is critical), while still permitting a town victory, even if the wolves don't cooperate. Anyone who tries to thwart this plan will garner themselves a bucketload of wolfpoints in my eyes.

Here's a list of the currently living players:
  1. Fowltief
  2. fraction2
  3. lethosos
  4. ljfa
  5. pyure
  6. realKC
  7. robijnvogel
  8. shazam08
  9. Someone Else 37
  10. spwnX
  11. the_j
  12. victini
... uhh, that's twelve people. If four of those are wolves, then there are eight villagers left, not seven. @Robijnvogel, check your math.

A solo mislynch tonight would put us at six and four tomorrow. Might still be winnable, but we'd definitely need to lynch a wolf tomorrow, and with only six villagers, we have a much smaller margin of error. And probably not much more information to go on.

Let's see... if we lynch three people at random tonight, each lynch has approximately a 1 in 3 chance of hitting a wolf. More specifically, the first lynch has a 4 in 12 chance; if that hits a villager, the second lynch would have a 4 in 11 chance of hitting a wolf, and if that fails, the third lynch would have a 4 in 10 chance.

4/12 + 8/12 * (4/11 + 7/11 * (4/10)) = 0.75454545...
4/12 + 8/12 * (4/11 + 7/11 * (4/10 + 6/10 * (4/9))) = 0.858585...

If my math is correct, we'd have a 75% chance of hitting a wolf by lynching three people at random. 86% by lynching four. We can do better than that, but only if we get input from *everyone*, so any wolves trying to get villagers lynched would be drowned out.

... On the other hand, *I* don't have much idea on who looks wolfy, so maybe it would be best to choose unfortunate victims at random. Any ideas on a wholly impartial random number generator that doesn't rely on anyone who might be a dirty wolf messing with things?
 

ljfa

New Member
Jul 29, 2019
2,761
-46
0
Waitwaitwait wat
Anyone with two votes on them at the end of the day gets lynched.
Damn, I totally misread that rule as "the two with the most votes on them..."
And I was wondering why there weren't two lynches...