Seconded Beta!

[Robijnvogel]

Wow... I didn't die?

Pyure, I'm sorry that I suspected you. I don't really see why the wolves killed you though. Did you suspect too many of them?
Well we can lynch a maximum of three people today, it seems.
As I will probably be one of them, that'd leave two chances for wolves... I hope that turns out well.

As for who is the last wolf, I have no idea. Our guessing chance went from 1/3 down to 1/7, so I don't think guessing is a real option right now.
Someone come up with a theory please.

Right now I'll go to bed though.

Note: Someone Else made a fair point about my system having one flaw, which would be that a werewolf in the submitters group and a wolf vote-counter could still team up to rig the outcome of the otherwise solid system. Thanks for pointing that out.
Also, yeah, while calculating the chances for random wolf kills, I forgot to take into account that a dead wolf or villager could not be lynched again. I think this would mean that the chances of killing at least one wolf were higher and the chances of only killing wolves were significantly lower. I don't think anyone else really took those chances into account though.

 

[Robijnvogel]

Apparently I did not go to bed yet...

Just wanted to say that Fraction wasn't actually dead. He only had one vote left on him at the end of the day. Both SE37 and Ljfa took theirs off of him, leaving only Pyure...

 

[goreae]

Apparently I did not go to bed yet...

Just wanted to say that Fraction wasn't actually dead. He only had one vote left on him at the end of the day. Both SE37 and Ljfa took theirs off of him, leaving only Pyure...

SE37 did, but the bolded words were separated and therefore really hard for me to notice. And I'm gonna say that the vote was invalid because the bolded words were separated. For future reference, if you wanna say something like "vote and second spwnX" then you can bold the whole phrase and that'll work fine.

 

[VictiniX888]

Okay right person-by-person analysis time

robijnvogel & SO37 are 99% town at this point. No wolf would bother to go and calculate all that shiz they did.

shazam08 - D1, quoting Fraction: "I have reached a mathematical certainty that Shazam08 is not a wolf". That's from a wolf. Sounds like a wolf protecting his wolfbuddy or something.
D2 popped in and said something about Fred & Robin's conversation, then voted for Fred at end of day, asking what our stance was on wagons, even though we've pretty much agreed to only lynch one per day.
Early D3 defended against ljfa, then proceeds to cast suspicion on Robin. Then Fraction votes him and switches off him. Idk whether this could be some w/w interaction, but I don't think the wolves would both gang up on another one of them. Therefore, town.
Conclusion: Town. D3 wolves' actions nullify mu suspicion on shaz D1 & 2.

lethosos - D1 random vote Spwn, D2 voted Fred first, but changed to Spwn after his defense. D3 voted Spwn again "in hopes that he really is a wolf". idk about this, but the last vote was a second, so I doubt a wolf would just hop on a wagon to kill off his friend. Unless the wolves wanted to sacrifice spwn.
Conclusion: Leaning towards town

realKC - D1 antismite nojr near end of day. Antismite, not vote, even when nojr is going to die.
D2 voted robin, makes sense I guess. D3 voted spwn, uh, idk about this, might be a wolf trying to look towny by hopping on someone already going to die anyways.
Conclusion: Quiet, can't really read him. Neutral reading

fowltief - D1 random voting. Made the statement about not having any reason to lynch D1. Towny I guess
D2 made a weird post to vote for fred. I don't see Fred as "taking advantage" of stuff, because imo his reasoning for voting you is completely legit. Then said the vote would make him look suspicious. tbh there are so things that make no sense in that post alone.
D3 randomvoted as per So37's idea. Uh... might be wolfy? The important thing is that he might be setting the stage for another wolf (ljfa in this case) to place a killing vote on J.
Conclusion: Half the time I don't even get what he's trying to say.

I would say either fowl or KC is the last wolf. vote Fowl

 

[Robijnvogel]

Okay right person-by-person analysis time
[...]
shazam08 - D1, quoting Fraction: "I have reached a mathematical certainty that Shazam08 is not a wolf". That's from a wolf. Sounds like a wolf protecting his wolfbuddy or something.
D2 popped in and said something about Fred & Robin's conversation, then voted for Fred at end of day, asking what our stance was on wagons, even though we've pretty much agreed to only lynch one per day.
Early D3 defended against ljfa, then proceeds to cast suspicion on Robin. Then Fraction votes him and switches off him. Idk whether this could be some w/w interaction, but I don't think the wolves would both gang up on another one of them. Therefore, town.
Conclusion: Town. D3 wolves' actions nullify mu suspicion on shaz D1 & 2.
[...]

So calculating all that stuff would rule me out of being a wolf in your book? Good to remember for another game.
If Sumwan Else knew this, that could be a double bluff.

Actually, switching on and off of Fraction (wolf), was exactly the last action that Ljfa (wolf) made, so if there was some w/w interaction and this is the strategy they agreed on, that would make Shazam very wolfy. That is why I'll vote Shaz.

I don't suspect Lethosos and realKC.

My respective list of suspects would be:
Shaz
Fowl
Victini

 

[VictiniX888]

So calculating all that stuff would rule me out of being a wolf in your book? Good to remember for another game.
If Sumwan Else knew this, that could be a double bluff.

Well now that you put it that way...
Though I really don't think you two are wolves. The fact that you bothered to go and suggest an improvement to SO37's idea that would only harm wolves, and how SO37 adressed the flaws in his idea, you two are clear.

 

[Shazam08]

I'm going to go ahead and vote fowl too. My top suspects are Victini and Fowl, explained earlier today in the post about ruling out those who doomed wolves yesterday, and Victini is contributing much more to discussion.

 

[fowltief]

vote Shaz sorry but i think you should go down with me just to be safe.


My list is:
Shaz
Victini
RealKC

your contribution has been just as dodgy as my own in my opinion.

 

[RealKC]

vote victini I'm not sure if trusting Shaz was a good idea or not, but the mega lynch was good and it may be too today...

 

[Someone Else 37]

SE37 did, but the bolded words were separated and therefore really hard for me to notice. And I'm gonna say that the vote was invalid because the bolded words were separated. For future reference, if you wanna say something like "vote and second spwnX" then you can bold the whole phrase and that'll work fine.

Oops.

I'll keep that in mind.

Anyhow, I think at this point we can pretty safely stick to minimal lynches, draw out the game for a couple days, and gather more info. My primary concern yesterday that led to the mega-lynch was that with multiple wolves around, they could effectively get an extra kill for every two of their numbers by having them vote and second the same player. With enough wolves and few enough villagers, they could finish us off without needing to keep themselves hidden at all. That's why I was so adamant about "We need to lynch at least one wolf tonight": with four wolves, they could vote and second two townies every night in addition to their normal kill.

As it stands, with one wolf remaining, the best he can do is second somebody else's vote.

On the other hand, the "kill lots of peeps and get the game over with" idea might still not be a bad one. Everyone seems to agree that robijn and I are almost certainly town, which puts massive targets on our backs. The longer the game goes on, the more time it gives the wolf to take us out.

Hmm. Lemme go draw up a spreadsheet of who's seconded who and then come back with a vote.

 

[Someone Else 37]

Righto.

Living players:

• fowltief seconded Shazam (living) D4
• lethosos seconded nobody the whole game
• realKC seconded nobody the whole game
• robijnvogel seconded ljfa (wolf) D3
• Shazam08 seconded fowltief (living) D4
• Someone Else 37 seconded Nojr (villager) D1, frederikam (villager) D2, fraction (wolf) then switched and seconded SpwnX (wolf) D3
• Victini seconded frederikam (villager) D1, then switched off

That's... not nearly as informative as I'd hoped, and a little more embarrassing as well. Nobody other than robijn and myself seconded anyone whose roles are known. It looks like fowltief and Shazam are both trying to kill each other today, which is probably means something, but I'm not sure what yet.

Look at dead players who then:

• Nojr (villager) seconded RealKC (living) then switched and seconded Pyure (villager) D1
• erindalc (villager) seconded nobody the whole game
• Fraction2 (wolf) seconded Shazam (living) D2, then switched off
• frederikam (villager) seconded nobody the whole game
• ljfa (wolf) seconded Fraction (wolf) D3, then switched off
• Pyure (villager) seconded nobody the whole game
• RJS (villager) seconded nobody the whole game
• SpwnX (wolf) seconded nobody the whole game
• the_J (villager) seconded ljfa (wolf) D3
• Vikestep (villager) seconded nobody the whole game

I think those switch-off votes are the most informative. Notice how ljfa, a proven wolf, seconded Fraction, another proven wolf, yesterday, then switched off of him, which would've saved his life had derpness not happened. That's exactly the same pattern as with Fraction and Shazam the day before, which casts a lot of suspicion on Shazam.

You could try to make the same argument about me (wow have I killed a lot of peeps), but when I switched my vote yesterday, I seconded somebody else (thus not reducing the number of lynches), and SpwnX turned out to be a wolf anyway. So I don't think that argument really holds up.

 

[Someone Else 37]

Hiya! Sorry, the day ends at an awkward time here. Still a little rushed so this'll be brief.

Rob, Real, and SE all seconded lynching a wolf yesterday, and Leth was the first to put a vote on Spwn. Fraction switched his vote off of me at the end of yesterday, which makes me look suspicious. I'm clear, but I only have my word to prove it so meh.

I *think* the list of suspects is down to:

• Fowltief
• Me
• Victini
• Lethosos (to a lesser extent)

(If I missed something there, speak up.)

I'd take a harder look at Fowl or Vic relative to the dead wolves (whether they've voted each other, interacted in the thread, etc). I'll be back!

What happened to this analysis that you mentioned? All I see is a vote on Victini with reasoning that he hasn't contributed to the discussion as much as fowltief.

For not carrying through with this (which looks wolfish to me) and for the reasons stated in my previous post, vote Shazam.

 

[ljfa]

Notice how ljfa, a proven wolf, seconded Fraction, another proven wolf, yesterday, then switched off of him, which would've saved his life had derpness not happened.

That must've been my biggest blunder ever, loooOOOoool

 

[Pyure]

I wish we had a deathconvoooOOOoooo.

 

[goreae]

• shazam08 was lynched! He was a villager!
• Fowltief was lynched! He was a villager!
• Someone Else 37 got ganked! He was a villager!

Carry on.

 

[Pyure]

dammit goreae, update the players list in the op you lazy piece of crap

 

[016Nojr]

I wish we had a deathconvoooOOOoooo.

DeAtH CoNvO sO wE kNoW whooOoO the laaAAAAast woOOOooOlf iIIIiIIIIIs @goreae

 

[Lethosos]

Ho-kay, missed the vote just because I wanted to see SOE's analysis first. Bleah.

Let's get this over with--getting SOE was a good move, but it won't save RealKC from my votelock! It's always the quiet ones!

Sent from my Puzzle Box of Yogg-Saron using Tapatalk 2

 

[Robijnvogel]

For being the only one alive on my list: vote Victini

 

[VictiniX888]

Okay, I'd just like to point out that if we lynch a villager today, we lose.

Anyways,

Ho-kay, missed the vote just because I wanted to see SOE's analysis first. Bleah.

Let's get this over with--getting SOE was a good move, but it won't save RealKC from my votelock! It's always the quiet ones!

Sent from my Puzzle Box of Yogg-Saron using Tapatalk 2

This post raised alarms for me. The fact that he locked his vote, appeared to me as though he is a wolf that just wants to game to be over already. Also, "getting SOE was a good move"? What does that have to do with KC?

Leth just went from "leaning towards town" to "wolfwolfwolf". KC is also still somewhat suspicious, but Leth seems more wolf than him. vote leth