Ok, so last night, I sat down for a good 30-60 minutes and worked out the implications of every possible combination of Strikingwolf's wolfiness, ljfa's revealed wolfiness, and ljfa's actual wolfiness. Remember, there's at least one Forger in this game, so the roles revealed in the recaps may not be what they seem.
- ljfa revealed as a Villager:
- Striking is a Villager:
- ljfa is actually a Villager: The Seer that spoke to Striking is obviously a wolf. Bad play for the wolves.
- ljfa is actually a Wolf: The Seer looks like a wolf, but was an actual Seer who will get lynched shortly thereafter. Not a bad play for the wolves.
- Striking is a Wolf (his role was Forged on D1):
- ljfa is actually a Villager: The "Seer" looks bad, so Striking will have us lynch him next. This "seer", of course, does not actually exist (except as something the wolf Striking made up), so a random villager will be lynched, whose role will probably be forged as a Wolf. The Wolves effectively control the game at this point.
- ljfa is actually a Wolf: So the wolf Striking had us lynch one of his fellow wolves, yet got the Forger to cover his tracks. No idea why this would ever happen.
- ljfa revealed as a Wolf:
- Striking is a Villager:
- ljfa is actually a Villager: The Seer (the one that told Striking to tell us to lynch ljfa) looks like an actual, village-loving Seer, but it a wolf nonetheless. He may end up controlling the entire game.
- ljfa is actually a Wolf: The Seer is totally legit, while the Forger is/was busy doing something else last night or the night before (making us think we lost a seer when Fraction wasn't one, perhaps?). Possible, although forging ljfa's role would've been a better play from the wolves' point of view. I think.
- Striking is a Wolf:
- ljfa is actually a Villager: The village now thinks Striking's made-up "seer" is legit, and will proceed to mislynch more villagers.
- ljfa is actually a Wolf: Again, why would Striking choose to have a fellow wolf lynched? If he's the Traitor, I have little doubt that he'll be wolfkilled in short order.
I'm not sure whether to classify ljfa's Traitor reveal as wolf or non-wolf, so I left both possibilities in.
For the record, I believe that ljfa is an actual wolf, and not the Traitor, for I am not a wolf, and I don't know why he would've accused me of being a wolf if he wasn't allied with the wolf team.
So what does this mean? For one thing, if Striking is an actual villager, the only way this could've been a good play from the wolves' point of view, from what I can tell, is if ljfa was a villager, which would mean that there is a fake seer running around; or, the seer is totally legit, but is framed for having us lynch a "villager" (which ljfa actually wasn't).
If, on the other hand, Striking is a reasonably intelligent, non-traitor wolf, the village is absolutely doomed if we believe what he says any longer. This is a risk I cannot allow myself to take.
Therefore, vote Strikingwolf.