I have a theory: it depends on how Forge generates ores. My guess is an algorithm that goes something like this:
Code:
Pick a random spot in the allowed height range for the ore.
If this spot is a valid place for this ore, generate a vein.
Repeat (probabilistically) as many times as is the expected number of veins in the chunk.
This ensures that you don't get ores generated in grass, inside an ocean, or similar.
Iridium ore can spawn anywhere up to layer 128. However, not any random place under y=128 is a valid position for an iridium ore - namely, most of layers 70+ are air. Therefore about half of spawning attempts actually fails. I don't know if Forge tries to generate another vein if one spawning failed, but 50% of veins missing due to failed spawn would agree with our observed numbers.
To test this, I created a superflat world consisting of 256 layers of solid stone, with ore generation enabled. Using MCedit I analyzed a few hundred chunks (roughly a 20x20 chunk area), and came close to 0.153 iridium ores per chunk. This is notably more than the 0.09 - 0.095 observed in normal generation, but still short of the 0.2 expected from the config files. I can't explain the difference.