Cardwolf V: Hang on is IV already over?

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Exedra

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Jul 29, 2019
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Well after one of the quickest games I've ever seen, I'm not actually ready with the new deck so looks like we're going with the classic again. Gives Robijn more info anyway.

Same as last time, here's the rolesheet and the end of day time will be midday UTC. Trust me, got it right this time.

Players
erindalc
Pyure
Scottly31
016Nojr
Lethosos
Robijn
sgbros
Real KC
Profrags
 
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016Nojr

016Nojr

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Dec 11, 2013
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Once again I hope I can be a wolf, but now with a bigger team. Pyure as my only wolf buddy was sort of ironic aswell...
 
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Lethosos

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Jul 29, 2019
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He's trolling you.

In before Excedra cuts the cards.

Sent from my Puzzle Box of Yogg-Saron using Tapatalk
 
Robijnvogel

Robijnvogel

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May 8, 2013
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Not calling out inactive people on D2 though. That was seriously unlike how Pyure usually plays. :eek:

Anyways, taking a look at the old games of Cardwolf that Exedra sent me:
  • It seems like the following roles were never even drawn:
    Vigilante, Watcher and Mafia Reflex Doctor. (So, that means there's a bigger chance of drawing those this game, right? XD)
  • The Bodyguard is the only once-drawn role that seems to have disappeared from the game.
  • The only people who ever drew the same card twice were @xTordX (CW II, Mafia Goon) and me (CW III, Villager).
  • The following roles were never picked, even when drawn:
    • 1-Shot Vigilante
    • FBI Agent
    • Jailkeeper
    • Lover
    • Mafia Lover
    • Nurse
    • Vanilla Cop
    • WPATWT
    And the Miller should never have been picked. Curse you, @goreae, for polluting my statistics!
@Exedra, I interpreted the "Town Godfather" role as a "Miller", the "SK (MI)" as an "SK A" and the the "SK (BP)" as an "SK B". Is that correct?
 
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Exedra

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Jul 29, 2019
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Robijnvogel said:
Not calling out inactive people on D2 though. That was seriously unlike how Pyure usually plays. :eek:

Anyways, taking a look at the old games of Cardwolf that Exedra sent me:
  • It seems like the following roles were never even drawn:
    Vigilante, Watcher and Mafia Reflex Doctor. (So, that means there's a bigger chance of drawing those this game, right? XD)
  • The Bodyguard is the only once-drawn role that seems to have disappeared from the game.
  • The only people who ever drew the same card twice were @xTordX (CW II, Mafia Goon) and me (CW III, Villager).
  • The following roles were never picked, even when drawn:
    • 1-Shot Vigilante
    • FBI Agent
    • Jailkeeper
    • Lover
    • Mafia Lover
    • Nurse
    • Vanilla Cop
    • WPATWT
    And the Miller should never have been picked. Curse you, @goreae, for polluting my statistics!
@Exedra, I interpreted the "Town Godfather" role as a "Miller", the "SK (MI)" as an "SK A" and the the "SK (BP)" as an "SK B". Is that correct?
Click to expand...
Uh the SK bit is right I'll have to do some digging on what actually happened to town godfather.

Can probably do some digging on the bodyguard disappearing but I'm pretty sure it's me being a dumbass and bodyguard=doctor

You can tell the SK by B being for Bulletproof and A for "Aaaaahh mafia…!"
 
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Robijnvogel

Robijnvogel

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May 8, 2013
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Alright, in that case this is the card-pick decision tree based on the data from Cardwolf II until IV, minus contradicting picks. (And I left out Letho's pick of a Villager over a Mason.)
  • Arrow heads are pointing towards the cards that have been chosen over all cards down the line.
  • Note that the cards that have never been drawn and the Mafia Compulsive Hider are not in there.
Trying to find a 1-dimensional ordering for that tree, resulted in this list.
I feel like the Supersaint and Jailkeeper got misplaced*, so please tell me where on the list those roles should be according to you.

Then there is this sheet where I have tried to find out some sort of formula to determine what roles are more likely to get into the game.
And the final result are these percentages. (based on 12 people competing)

*Because they are under the Mason Lover in the tree and I don't think that that role is that great.
 
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