Forestry Bee Math (How to figure out probability of item production)

[OlexaKid64]

Hey guys!

I just wanted to share with you a very useful tool when working with Forestry bees. Have you ever wondered why your Forest Queens can go numerous lifetimes without producing honey combs? Have you ever wondered how you can improve this?

This is why Forestry added frames to the game. Using frames, we can enhance our bee production and make them produce more items. But how can we tell exactly what the probabilities are?

Check out the video below to learn the formula for finding item probabilities as well as learning about what frames do and how they can be used to enhance your bee production and experience.

NOTE: After a little bit of research I found out that combs have a chance to produce twice during the same tick. After the first comb is produced, it cuts the percentage in half and there's that chance to get a second comb. This does not work for specialties. However the production cap is set at 100%. Anything above is a waste. So for example, if your meadows bee can produce honeycombs at 30%, and we calculate that with our frames there's a 72% chance to produce one each tick, there's then a 36% chance of producing a second comb because we cut the base chance in half. I hope that clears up any confusion.
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[Nuttyprot]

Saying the video is unavalable. Would this not bee better placed in youtube advertisement section of the forum also?

 

[RealSketch]

Saying the video is unavalable. Would this not bee better placed in youtube advertisement section of the forum also?

Nope, since the topic is about how to work out the math, it belongs in here or Mod Discussion.
Also, *Available*.

 

[ThomazM]

Nope, since the topic is about how to work out the math, it belongs in here or Mod Discussion.
Also, *Available*.

The almighty mystical ninja dragon of purpleness has spoken!

 

[Padfoote]

Nope, since the topic is about how to work out the math, it belongs in here or Mod Discussion.
Also, *Available*.

Wow, you've officially replaced me around here (with everything except BM promotion). Well done.

 

[RealSketch]

Wow, you've officially replaced me around here (with everything except BM promotion). Well done.

You are no match for the Purple Dragon, Blood Magician.
Your time here is done, now crawl back to your hole!

Botania eats Blood Magic and Witchery for breakfast...

 

[ThomazM]

You are no match for the Purple Dragon, Blood Magician.
You're time here is done, now crawl back to your hole!

No, Thomaz... You don't need to point it out... You don't need to. You don't... You...

*YOUR!

I'm sorry...

 

[RealSketch]

No, Thomaz... You don't need to point it out... You don't need to. You don't... You...

*YOUR!

I'm sorry...

Blame late nighters.

 

[rhn]

You say that anything above 100% production chance is wasted. But how come it is quite common to see Fast/Faster production bees in Alvearies with frames produce multiple combs/special products per bee tick then?

 

[ThomazM]

Blame late nighters.
I don't know why I'm still up.

I already do...




I already do...

 

[OlexaKid64]

You say that anything above 100% production chance is wasted. But how come it is quite common to see Fast/Faster production bees in Alvearies with frames produce multiple combs/special products per bee tick then?

I understand what you're saying. However you have to keep in mind that each product able to be produced has a certain percentage. Every tick it is possible for the bee to produce more than one item because each item has a seperate probability. So say a meadows bee produces honey comb and stringy comb. Every tick, the game looks for the percentage of honey and stringy. So technically there is a chance for more than one item to be produced. Now you would have to check the frame number for each item possibly produced using the formula to find the exact # of frames. However in the case of the video, having a set of frames give the alveary a probability above 100 is useless because the only item able to be produced is honey comb.

 

[rhn]

I understand what you're saying. However you have to keep in mind that each product able to be produced has a certain percentage. Every tick it is possible for the bee to produce more than one item because each item has a seperate probability. So say a meadows bee produces honey comb and stringy comb. Every tick, the game looks for the percentage of honey and stringy. So technically there is a chance for more than one item to be produced. Now you would have to check the frame number for each item possibly produced using the formula to find the exact # of frames. However in the case of the video, having a set of frames give the alveary a probability above 100 is useless because the only item able to be produced is honey comb.

No I am talking about getting 2xComb and 2xSpeciallity product from bees each "bee tick" for example. It is quite easy to get with Fast bees in Alvearies and 3x frames.

For example just checked it out with Imperial Bees from Extrabees with Fast production in an alveary with 3x Frames. Quite easily get 2x Dripping Combs each "Bee tick" and 1-2x Royal Jelly.

This behavior fits perfectly to your "bee math"
Comb: 1.2*1*0.2*2^3=1.92
Jelly: 1.2*1*0.15*2^3=1.44

 

[OlexaKid64]

No I am talking about getting 2xComb and 2xSpeciallity product from bees each "bee tick" for example. It is quite easy to get with Fast bees in Alvearies and 3x frames.

For example just checked it out with Imperial Bees from Extrabees with Fast production in an alveary with 3x Frames. Quite easily get 2x Dripping Combs each "Bee tick" and 1-2x Royal Jelly.

This behavior fits perfectly to your "bee math"
Comb: 1.2*1*0.2*2^3=1.92
Jelly: 1.2*1*0.15*2^3=1.44

Are you positive you're getting them in the same tick? If so there may be a special case and I may have to look into that but the frame count should not affect that.

EDIT: After a little bit of research I found out that combs have a chance to produce twice during the same tick. After the first comb is produced, it cuts the percentage in half and there's that chance to get a second comb. This does not work for specialties. However the production cap is set at 100%. Anything above is a waste. So for example, if your meadows bee can produce honeycombs at 30%, and we calculate that with our frames there's a 72% chance to produce one each tick, there's then a 36% chance of producing a second comb because we cut the base chance in half. I hope that clears up any confusion.

 

[rhn]

Are you positive you're getting them in the same tick? If so there may be a special case and I may have to look into that but the frame count should not affect that.

Yeah positively the same tick. And it is not just this one species. Happens across Forestry, ExB and MB species.

And it has been happening at least back since 1.5 versions.

 

[OlexaKid64]

Yeah positively the same tick. And it is not just this one species. Happens across Forestry, ExB and MB species.

And it has been happening at least back since 1.5 versions.

Check the edited post RHN sir

 

[rhn]

EDIT: After a little bit of research I found out that combs have a chance to produce twice during the same tick. After the first comb is produced, it cuts the percentage in half and there's that chance to get a second comb. This does not work for specialties. However the production cap is set at 100%. Anything above is a waste. So for example, if your meadows bee can produce honeycombs at 30%, and we calculate that with our frames there's a 72% chance to produce one each tick, there's then a 36% chance of producing a second comb because we cut the base chance in half. I hope that clears up any confusion.

Ahh that could be it. Never actually gotten the 3rd comb, but don't think I have had the chance high enough for that either. And adding to the confusion is ofc that most the "speciality" products of most species are not actually counted as specialities...

 

[ThatOneSlowking]

You are no match for the Purple Dragon, Blood Magician.
Your time here is done, now crawl back to your hole!

Botania eats Blood Magic and Witchery for breakfast...

Technomancy, thaumcraft, kami, blood magic. They fit together so well.
Check M8
Also this is not mod doscussion, it is general FTB Chat.
In topic: This math... I SHALL USE AND ABUSE!

 

[rhn]

EDIT: After a little bit of research I found out that combs have a chance to produce twice during the same tick. After the first comb is produced, it cuts the percentage in half and there's that chance to get a second comb. This does not work for specialties. However the production cap is set at 100%. Anything above is a waste. So for example, if your meadows bee can produce honeycombs at 30%, and we calculate that with our frames there's a 72% chance to produce one each tick, there's then a 36% chance of producing a second comb because we cut the base chance in half. I hope that clears up any confusion.

Still cant get this 100% cap to ring true. If there was a cap at 100% it would mean that the maximum you could achieve was an average of 1.5 combs produced. 100% chance for the first comb and then 50%(half) chance for the second comb. But just from observation I can tell that that isn't the max:
Going to bring back my Imperial bee, Fast production in Alveary with 3 frames:
Dripping comb: 1.2*1*0.20*2^3=1.92=192%
Royal Jelly: 1.2*1*0.15*2^3=1.44=144%
So we are above the 100% cap and should get 1.5 combs on average.

Did a bit of testing where I manually removed the combs and jelly every bee tick and stored them away:

As you can see I was consistently getting 2 combs and large majority of the time 2 Royal Jelly(84% of the time). If the total production percentage cap was 100% we should see an average of 1.5 of each item.
But if we half the calculated production percentages we get a 96% chance for 2x Combs and 72% chance for 2x Jelly. With the small sample size it is a reasonable assumption that the observed 84% chance of Jelly would converge towards 72 with more samples.(I just couldn't be bothered to sit there any longer )


To test the 2 combs theory and test if adding more frames would guarantee 2x combs and 2x Jelly I put the same bee in an Alveary with 8 Frames(6144% and 4608% chances respectively). Results were:

So I think what we can deduce from this is that the total production percentage cap is not 100%, but 200%. This way the first comb is capped out at 100% production chance and the total percentage is halved for the second resulting in 100% production chance of another comb.

 

[OlexaKid64]

Still cant get this 100% cap to ring true. If there was a cap at 100% it would mean that the maximum you could achieve was an average of 1.5 combs produced. 100% chance for the first comb and then 50%(half) chance for the second comb. But just from observation I can tell that that isn't the max:
Going to bring back my Imperial bee, Fast production in Alveary with 3 frames:
Dripping comb: 1.2*1*0.20*2^3=1.92=192%
Royal Jelly: 1.2*1*0.15*2^3=1.44=144%
So we are above the 100% cap and should get 1.5 combs on average.

Did a bit of testing where I manually removed the combs and jelly every bee tick and stored them away:

As you can see I was consistently getting 2 combs and large majority of the time 2 Royal Jelly(84% of the time). If the total production percentage cap was 100% we should see an average of 1.5 of each item.
But if we half the calculated production percentages we get a 96% chance for 2x Combs and 72% chance for 2x Jelly. With the small sample size it is a reasonable assumption that the observed 84% chance of Jelly would converge towards 72 with more samples.(I just couldn't be bothered to sit there any longer )


To test the 2 combs theory and test if adding more frames would guarantee 2x combs and 2x Jelly I put the same bee in an Alveary with 8 Frames(6144% and 4608% chances respectively). Results were:

So I think what we can deduce from this is that the total production percentage cap is not 100%, but 200%. This way the first comb is capped out at 100% production chance and the total percentage is halved for the second resulting in 100% production chance of another comb.

I won't lie, this is very very interesting. However, to this point, Sir Sengir and Binnie have not stated anything about the cap being greater than 100% so I have to believe what the wiki states until they say something different. I will admit though, it does seem like you are correct. And that is very interesting.

 

[ScottulusMaximus]

If you get the probability of the first comb being produced to 100%(fastest with a bunch of frames) and the second comb has 1/2 the chance(50%) with the third half that(25%) as you've stated then max production is approaching 200%...

Thanks to RNG and rounding it means max production is 2 combs and 2 specialties per bee tick.